Author: mmm112482 (---.bsfllp.com)
Date: 08-01-06 08:53
Anne-Marie, It appears as if this morning, the tropical depression in question officially became tropical storm Chris. Heavy rains are likely in Puero Rico on Wednesday, with the storm passing the are by the end of the day.
From Weatherunderground: It's August in the tropics, the first of the peak months of hurricane season. Befitting the arrival of August comes the arrival of Tropical Storm Chris, which formed this morning just east of the Leeward Islands. The formation of Chris came in defiance of significant adversity--wind shear was 20-25 knots last night when the storm formed into a tropical depression, and is still a rather hefty 15-20 knots. Considerable dry air lies to Chris' north, and strong upper-level winds from the north are acting to push this dry air into Chris' core, keeping the storm from intensifying much. Radar out of Martinique shows a decent band of thunderstorm to the storm's southeast and east, but no thunderstorm activity on the northwest side where shear and dry air are impacting the storm. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT pass to gauge the winds, but two passes by a satellite equipped with a microwave sensor came up with an estimate of 40 mph surface winds. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to visit at 2pm EDT this afternoon, so we'll know more then.
This shear and dry air will continue to affect Chris over the next two days. The shear is forecast to gradually weaken, which may allow some slow intensification. Chris must tightrope walk a very narrow path between two upper-level cold lows in order to strengthen significantly. One of these cold lows is just north of the Bahamas, and the other is northeast of Chris. These lows are forecast to move slowly west-northwest in tandem with Chris, and if Chris can stay exactly between them, low enough wind shear exists to potentially allow some strengthening. Any deviation from this scenario will put Chris under hostile wind shear, which will act to limit intensification or even dissipate the storm.
Last night's computer model runs did not start out with a very good initial picture of the current strength of Chris, and dissipated the storm within 72 hours. We need to wait until the next set of model runs based on this morning's 8am EDT (12Z) data are available before taking much stock in both the track and intensity forecasts of the models. The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly the storm tonight, so the best model data for Chris will be available Wednesday morning.
Chris will bring heavy rains and high winds to the Leeward Islands today, primarily to those islands lying to the south of the storm's center, where dry and and wind shear are less of a problem. Puerto Rico should get a good soaking on Wednesday, and after that, the prognosis is very uncertain. Chris could become a hurricane late in the week, but I put the chances of this at 10%. Dissipation is a more likely scenario, since there is so much wind shear around. The most likely scenario of all is that Chris will remain a tropical storm over the next five days.
|
|
¡Versión en Español!
